Texas Senate Race: Can Colin Allred Pull Off an Upset Against Ted Cruz?

Austin, TX — With Election Day just around the corner, Texas’s Senate race between incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred is closer than many anticipated. The contest is now seen as a potential flip, with polls showing Cruz barely leading Allred, a former NFL linebacker and House Representative, in what has historically been a GOP stronghold.

The stakes are high, with both parties vying for control of the Senate. According to an Emerson College poll released on October 23, 48% of likely Texas voters back Cruz, with 47% supporting Allred, underscoring a competitive race as the candidates court undecided voters and attempt to define themselves as bipartisan.

Allred’s Strategic Campaign and Key Issues

Allred, a former attorney and civil rights advocate, is running on a platform that differentiates him from both his opponent and his own party. He has highlighted Cruz’s controversial stance on abortion, his vote against certifying the 2020 presidential election, and his widely criticized 2021 trip to Cancun during a Texas power crisis. “This race isn’t about party politics,” Allred told USA TODAY, “it’s about leadership and accountability.”

Following a similar strategy to Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 challenge, Allred has focused on suburban and urban areas and emphasized bipartisanship, leveraging endorsements and support from groups across the political spectrum. His platform centers on immigration reform, economic support, and reproductive rights, which resonate with many in the state’s changing demographics.

Cruz’s Campaign and the GOP’s Betting Odds

Cruz, endorsed by former President Donald Trump, has received limited support from Republican leadership this cycle, partly due to his past criticism of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Despite this, Republicans are betting on Trump’s Texas popularity to pull Cruz over the finish line. GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak believes “Trump’s margin in Texas is likely to be the boost Cruz needs.”

Cruz, rated as one of the most partisan senators, has leaned into his conservative base while attempting to brand himself as an independent voice. In recent debates, he’s highlighted his opposition to Democratic immigration policies and support for energy independence, key issues for Texas voters.

Shifting Demographics and the ‘Blue Miracle’ Dream

Texas Democrats are optimistic, pointing to shifting demographics and growing urban populations that favor their positions. The Texas Majority PAC, aimed at strengthening Democratic influence, has committed significant funding to the race, viewing Allred’s campaign as a critical step in flipping Texas blue over time. “Win or lose, this is not over for Texas Democrats,” said Katherine Fischer, a campaign strategist for Texas Majority PAC.

Vice President Kamala Harris’s recent campaign event in Houston underscored the high-profile nature of the race, as she spoke on abortion rights—a central issue Allred has highlighted. Pop star Beyoncé is also expected to make an appearance, aiming to boost voter enthusiasm.

A Symbolic Race for Democrats

Though flipping Cruz’s seat would be a major victory for Democrats, Allred’s presence on the ballot is expected to help boost turnout and potentially influence down-ballot races. As Election Day nears, both campaigns are pouring resources into a final push for undecided voters in hopes of securing a decisive outcome.

As Texans prepare to vote, the race’s outcome could signal a shift in Texas politics. For Cruz, it’s a fight to maintain his seat in a changing state, while for Allred, it’s an opportunity to make history and bring Texas closer to Democratic control. The impact on the national Senate balance is sure to have far-reaching implications for both parties as they await the final results on November 5.