From Ban to Buyout: What Next for TikTok in the US?

Washington — TikTok is facing an imminent shutdown in the United States after Congress passed a law last year requiring its Chinese owner, ByteDance, to either sell the platform or shut it down by Sunday, just a day before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. The US Supreme Court is expected to rule this week on TikTok's challenge to the law, and expectations are high that the law will stand.

Here’s what could happen next for TikTok in the US:

1. App Store Ban:

If the US government imposes the ban, Apple and Google would be instructed to remove TikTok from their app stores, preventing new downloads starting as early as Sunday. However, the 170 million existing US users would still be able to use the app unless TikTok blocks their access. TikTok lawyer Noel Francisco has stated that the site could “go dark” if the justices fail to block the ban, though many observers believe ByteDance would be reluctant to shut off access for American users entirely.

2. Workarounds:

If TikTok remains accessible, US users would stop receiving security and software updates, leading to gradual quality deterioration and increased security vulnerabilities. To circumvent the ban, users may turn to virtual private networks (VPNs) to mask their location and continue accessing the app. TikTok might also attempt to update the app from non-US servers, potentially collaborating with non-Chinese companies. However, such actions would likely attract greater scrutiny from US authorities.

3. Defiance?:

After Trump’s inauguration, the law’s enforcement would be in the hands of his attorney general. The attorney general could choose not to enforce the law or stall its implementation, possibly with the support of the Republican majority in Congress. This could give ByteDance more time to find a buyer or develop alternative solutions to the ban.

4. Alternatives:

If TikTok is banned, many users are expected to move to competing platforms like Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, or Elon Musk’s X (formerly Twitter), which could gain from TikTok’s loss. Musk has expressed interest in making X more similar to TikTok by incorporating video content and shopping features. Some American content creators have already started migrating to Xiaohongshu (Red Note), a Chinese app that has recently topped the Apple App Store’s download charts.

5. Investor Rescue?:

Several potential buyers have emerged, including Frank McCourt, the former owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers, though ByteDance has ruled out a sale for now. McCourt’s partner, Canadian businessman Kevin O’Leary, recently met with Trump and discussed using the TikTok issue as leverage in US-China relations. Other potential buyers include former Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick, who has expressed interest in acquiring the app.

For now, TikTok's future in the US hinges on the Supreme Court’s decision. Company lawyers have asked the justices for a delay in any ban to provide more time for a solution. As Trump recently stated, “Nobody knows what they can do and who’s going to do it until they hear from the Supreme Court.”